The Iran energy crisis will leave a lasting legacy that reshapes global energy policy architecture for decades to come, regardless of when the immediate conflict is resolved, the head of the International Energy Agency has predicted. Fatih Birol, speaking in Canberra, said crises of this magnitude historically produced fundamental and lasting changes in how nations and international institutions managed energy security. He described the current emergency as equivalent to the combined force of the 1970s twin oil shocks and the Ukraine gas disruption — both of which had left permanent marks on global energy policy.
Birol identified several areas where lasting policy changes were likely. Strategic reserve systems would need to be expanded and better coordinated across nations. International frameworks for protecting critical energy infrastructure from attack would need to be strengthened. Energy supply and transit diversification would need to accelerate significantly. And mechanisms for coordinating international emergency responses would need to be made faster and more robust.
The conflict began February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran and has since removed 11 million barrels of oil per day and 140 billion cubic metres of gas from world markets. At least 40 Gulf energy assets have been severely damaged, and the Hormuz strait — through which approximately 20 percent of global oil flows — remains closed. The IEA deployed 400 million barrels from strategic reserves on March 11 in its largest emergency action.
Birol confirmed further releases were under consideration and said consultations with governments across Europe, Asia, and North America were ongoing. He called for demand-side policies including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced commercial aviation. He met with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and said Australia had the opportunity to help shape the post-crisis energy policy architecture as a constructive and engaged middle power.
Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the strait expired without result, and Tehran threatened retaliatory strikes on US and allied energy and water infrastructure. Birol concluded that the Iran crisis would be remembered not just for the immediate emergency it had created but for the lasting changes it would force on global energy governance. He said it was the responsibility of current leaders to ensure those changes were as ambitious and as durable as the scale of the crisis demanded.